Christmas is a Christian celebration to celebrate the birth of Jesus Christ. New Year's Day was introduced into China from the Western calendar since the term New Year's Day will be dedicated to the New Year, called the traditional New Year Spring Festival. In China, two more people this festival as a carnival. So now restaurants, shopping malls are held in such activities vigorously. So I am here to introduce several hotels, restaurants, Christmas, New Year's Day promotions program.
2010 of the Hotel,UGG boots, Restaurant Christmas, New Year's Day program of promotional activities planned Christmas and New Year restaurant
a
a planning program, Time: December 20 -1 10 Day
II Topic: Meet in Beijing offer up to joy Christmas, New Year's Day
III Event Description: The December 25 each year, is the day Christians commemorate the birth of Jesus, known as Christmas in the Western countries, the biggest festival of the year, and the New Year can be compared, similar to China's Spring Festival.
IV Objectives: By Christmas, New Year's planning activities, and expand the hotel's visibility and strengthen the emotional ties with business customers, residents of surrounding areas to guide food consumption, to obtain certain economic and social benefits.
five, field border layout:
A. door: dress up as Santa Claus for a waiter Hou welcome guests at the door, greeted the language must be 'merrychristmas!' met about 10 years of age Guests are issued a small fruit and sugar.
B. Hall: Central put on the Christmas tree, Christmas tree to a large, coordinated with the lobby space, the tree must have flashing lights to attract the attention of the guests display a variety of Christmas gifts (empty box with a gift bag Packaging can be), under the Christmas tree in a row, with various lights, decorations, etc.,UGGs, plus posters, music,Discount UGG boots, etc. to render the Christmas atmosphere, the hotel into a Christmas party in heaven.
E. Glass windows and doors: Paste Christmas painting such as: snow, Santa Claus, etc. (there are ready to sell quality wholesale)
D. waiter and cashier all wore little red Christmas hat, set off a festive atmosphere to stimulate customer spending. Restaurant: The waiter wearing a Christmas Red Hat, the first guests to each table a plate of fancy Christmas cake, there are cakes, cookies, can also be a very popular hotel features usually snack, put on a variety of candy around .
six activities:
Food & Beverage:
1, during the event, introduced the Christmas package (standard set by the Food and Beverage)
2, Christmas Festival Special Package:
scheduled in advance, giving Christmas gift.
3, during the event, each table can enjoy special dishes a
4, during the event, each table features beautifully presented one small point.
Housekeeping:
1, during the event, 6th Floor, 7, Business Standard Room Special Room 100 RMB / room.
2, house guests are complimentary voucher worth the value of 58 yuan. (Vouchers only in the individual on the basis of price discount, the lowest price guarantee 100)
3, house guests, free use of hotel swimming pool,UGG shoes, check out the same day to 14 can enjoy Check out: 00.
4, stay suites guests enjoy VIP treatment, chairman of the room with words of welcome and a complimentary fruit, mineral water bottles.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
First, his favorite sport
(1) like running, swimming and other single men like the independence movement, which means they are often alone.
(2) like football, basketball, baseball and other team sports of men like to compete, whether in sports or all aspects of life, like the showdown with the people around anytime, anywhere.
(3) For those who do not love sports, they are independent thinkers, often very sensitive.
Second, he and friends is how long
(4) a date 10 years old acquaintances and contacts still may be very loyal man, this is his big advantages, however, dating expert Liz Kelly said: take some time. have no problem talking to people, he is easy to adapt to the new environment.
Third, the use of cash or credit card
(6) like the credit card people are keen fame and status. He may be ambitious, be confident. He will work hard to achieve their financial goals.
(7) and those who like to pay with cash confident and independent. Such a person to become Playboy's unlikely.
(8) If the man's wallet is deflated, it shows that he is like trusting a need to take care of the man.
four of his bad habits
(9) gambling man Love is adventurist, adventure makes them happy. But they are always too optimistic on their own, do not think that gambling addiction, until utterly exhausted.
(10) while the smoker is more likely to be anxious, you want him to sit down and stay with you said you would Retroflex Suffixation not easy.
(11) if he liked to drink, then this may be to cover up his insecurity.
five, and his communication style
(12) If your date like to send you e-mail, rather than a direct call, he may be difficult to deal with. In fact, write e-mail might weigh every word, he had enough time to cover up the real you; but it is easy to call yourself a true exposure. may be some outdated things like step by step, however, Brison said: You might be with a simple and easy-going guy, he also likes quiet and not spend the woman.
(16) always liked women to wear high fashion men high social prestige, South Los Angeles psychologist Alessio Wen said: Numuxiangxiang, This shows his strong self-control. home cooking is often a prudent and realistic man, but he is also an adventurous person. . Daniels said: His expectations of you are around the house immaculate. is a slacker.
ten, like the TV show if he likes to keep a pick in front of the television to watch a drama, then you should pay attention. TV producers, enjoy the fun, glitz and meaningful social life, a simple method This may be a good thing, because he will not vent the pressure on you, or to become not cool, but you want to talk seriously with him is not easy, which is a contradiction. The more you think, and he discussed some important issues, he more they want to escape. always spare no effort to help you. is home to old and young, he may be creative, and some rebels.
(29) were sensitive to the middle ranks, hoping to win another concern. with you when you appear in public, he is like a rash, like sticking in your side.
(30) He may be showing off you, it may be suggested to others in your his 'territory', in any case this is a sign of his insecurity.
(31) in public, on the courage to know that your body is not sure either man to touch, his feelings for you, or are not sure about your feelings for him. Nagorno-Karabakh Moto said:
(32) do not like to take the initiative to drive a man may let you control your relationship, at least sometimes.
(33) a general in the manipulation of the steering wheel, even in your car is such a man, say it nicely is Lianxiangxiyu conservatives, at worst point is control freak.
fourth, whether he likes the mirror every time I pass a shop window glass when the mirror and look at all like the man himself is clearly narcissistic,
(34), but interestingly, This was a man determined to mark the success. little self-righteous man may not have lofty ambitions. Hanjinboshi said: , speech experts said Diane Dire Vista: ) If the conversation her eyes stare at you, he might want to stress you.
(2) like football, basketball, baseball and other team sports of men like to compete, whether in sports or all aspects of life, like the showdown with the people around anytime, anywhere.
(3) For those who do not love sports, they are independent thinkers, often very sensitive.
Second, he and friends is how long
(4) a date 10 years old acquaintances and contacts still may be very loyal man, this is his big advantages, however, dating expert Liz Kelly said: take some time. have no problem talking to people, he is easy to adapt to the new environment.
Third, the use of cash or credit card
(6) like the credit card people are keen fame and status. He may be ambitious, be confident. He will work hard to achieve their financial goals.
(7) and those who like to pay with cash confident and independent. Such a person to become Playboy's unlikely.
(8) If the man's wallet is deflated, it shows that he is like trusting a need to take care of the man.
four of his bad habits
(9) gambling man Love is adventurist, adventure makes them happy. But they are always too optimistic on their own, do not think that gambling addiction, until utterly exhausted.
(10) while the smoker is more likely to be anxious, you want him to sit down and stay with you said you would Retroflex Suffixation not easy.
(11) if he liked to drink, then this may be to cover up his insecurity.
five, and his communication style
(12) If your date like to send you e-mail, rather than a direct call, he may be difficult to deal with. In fact, write e-mail might weigh every word, he had enough time to cover up the real you; but it is easy to call yourself a true exposure. may be some outdated things like step by step, however, Brison said: You might be with a simple and easy-going guy, he also likes quiet and not spend the woman.
(16) always liked women to wear high fashion men high social prestige, South Los Angeles psychologist Alessio Wen said: Numuxiangxiang, This shows his strong self-control. home cooking is often a prudent and realistic man, but he is also an adventurous person. . Daniels said: His expectations of you are around the house immaculate. is a slacker.
ten, like the TV show if he likes to keep a pick in front of the television to watch a drama, then you should pay attention. TV producers, enjoy the fun, glitz and meaningful social life, a simple method This may be a good thing, because he will not vent the pressure on you, or to become not cool, but you want to talk seriously with him is not easy, which is a contradiction. The more you think, and he discussed some important issues, he more they want to escape. always spare no effort to help you. is home to old and young, he may be creative, and some rebels.
(29) were sensitive to the middle ranks, hoping to win another concern. with you when you appear in public, he is like a rash, like sticking in your side.
(30) He may be showing off you, it may be suggested to others in your his 'territory', in any case this is a sign of his insecurity.
(31) in public, on the courage to know that your body is not sure either man to touch, his feelings for you, or are not sure about your feelings for him. Nagorno-Karabakh Moto said:
(32) do not like to take the initiative to drive a man may let you control your relationship, at least sometimes.
(33) a general in the manipulation of the steering wheel, even in your car is such a man, say it nicely is Lianxiangxiyu conservatives, at worst point is control freak.
fourth, whether he likes the mirror every time I pass a shop window glass when the mirror and look at all like the man himself is clearly narcissistic,
(34), but interestingly, This was a man determined to mark the success. little self-righteous man may not have lofty ambitions. Hanjinboshi said: , speech experts said Diane Dire Vista: ) If the conversation her eyes stare at you, he might want to stress you.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Ai Gesi matte cotton plush decorative bow authentic Japanese and Korean Hot New
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Notes:. All made products, seasonal clearance, special promotional products do not accept the return of non-quality problems!
online shopping is different from the physical stores can try to complete, although the home life of a family of convenient, prices are also a great advantage, but also resulting in problems of one kind, for your concern that we did order, hoping to help you. (frequently asked questions see the bottom of the connecting buyers to click to enter!)
For buyers must-read detailed text description, please see the buyers will shop reading,Bailey UGG boots, any questions, please feel free to contact us!
for goods purchased in our store to apply for return service before, please contact customer service. OUR OUR not handle the following situations do not provide return service: build, seasonal clearance, special promotions products; no packaging, no after-sale cards, bills purchased products; shoe soles or soles appear Zhehen wearing any trace of the product; after washing, were stained products; freight products; not communicate categorically return.
Details:
1,UGG boots cheap, we assume the following conditions return shipping costs:
① not the buyer of goods sent under a single commodity;
② obvious quality issues, according to the national Warranty Act is the quality of the following: shoes size sizes occurred, incidentally, helped off, off the bottom, leather off,UGG shoes, serious off slurry, a plastic, open line, off the root and so on are quality problems, we are responsible for round-trip replacement cost of delivery (mail delivery standard uniform subsidy 8 yuan, to reject any form of freight);
2, except made commodities, commodity-price restaurant quarter is a free replacement, but requires Customer assumes shipping;
for custom products, made time for 3-5 days, 8 days of delivery are normal areas, in return not to support this period, and the non-quality problems do not accept any form of The return, made some custom size required additional costs. to ensure that both parties rights, please carefully read and accept the terms of who can buy again, thank you!
For detailed procedures and related matters in return, please read Buyer must read the detailed text in the after-sales service, if any questions, please feel free to contact us. photographed products that were deemed to have read and accepted our terms here!
the instructions on the delivery time: Under normal circumstances Goods will be sent in 1-3 days (except custom) logistics delivery details, please refer buyers must read the detailed text description on the shipping if you have any questions, please feel free to contact us
on product evaluation: Our principle is to provide each client with cost-effective product, we cherish every praise, and if you are not satisfied, please communicate with us,sunburst Ugg boots, I believe any reasonable questions can be resolved quickly for you. without any communication, hastily given in the negative feedback can not solve any problems. We humbly accept the criticism fair, our work will certainly be the existence of such kind of mistakes, but also very willing to take responsibility. there is a problem with each other more of a calm and frank, Try to think about conversion, I believe any problems can be solved.
this section of the working-class single shoes, the finest material, with beautifully packaged and perfect after-sales service, experience zero-risk shopping!
Notes:. All made products, seasonal clearance, special promotional products do not accept the return of non-quality problems!
online shopping is different from the physical stores can try to complete, although the home life of a family of convenient, prices are also a great advantage, but also resulting in problems of one kind, for your concern that we did order, hoping to help you. (frequently asked questions see the bottom of the connecting buyers to click to enter!)
For buyers must-read detailed text description, please see the buyers will shop reading,Bailey UGG boots, any questions, please feel free to contact us!
for goods purchased in our store to apply for return service before, please contact customer service. OUR OUR not handle the following situations do not provide return service: build, seasonal clearance, special promotions products; no packaging, no after-sale cards, bills purchased products; shoe soles or soles appear Zhehen wearing any trace of the product; after washing, were stained products; freight products; not communicate categorically return.
Details:
1,UGG boots cheap, we assume the following conditions return shipping costs:
① not the buyer of goods sent under a single commodity;
② obvious quality issues, according to the national Warranty Act is the quality of the following: shoes size sizes occurred, incidentally, helped off, off the bottom, leather off,UGG shoes, serious off slurry, a plastic, open line, off the root and so on are quality problems, we are responsible for round-trip replacement cost of delivery (mail delivery standard uniform subsidy 8 yuan, to reject any form of freight);
2, except made commodities, commodity-price restaurant quarter is a free replacement, but requires Customer assumes shipping;
for custom products, made time for 3-5 days, 8 days of delivery are normal areas, in return not to support this period, and the non-quality problems do not accept any form of The return, made some custom size required additional costs. to ensure that both parties rights, please carefully read and accept the terms of who can buy again, thank you!
For detailed procedures and related matters in return, please read Buyer must read the detailed text in the after-sales service, if any questions, please feel free to contact us. photographed products that were deemed to have read and accepted our terms here!
the instructions on the delivery time: Under normal circumstances Goods will be sent in 1-3 days (except custom) logistics delivery details, please refer buyers must read the detailed text description on the shipping if you have any questions, please feel free to contact us
on product evaluation: Our principle is to provide each client with cost-effective product, we cherish every praise, and if you are not satisfied, please communicate with us,sunburst Ugg boots, I believe any reasonable questions can be resolved quickly for you. without any communication, hastily given in the negative feedback can not solve any problems. We humbly accept the criticism fair, our work will certainly be the existence of such kind of mistakes, but also very willing to take responsibility. there is a problem with each other more of a calm and frank, Try to think about conversion, I believe any problems can be solved.
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Get up son
Really fast, my son tomorrow, is still sleeping soundly in the extreme. shot clock down crying a cry, and pull out good, then continue to sleep, my husband saw how indescribably happy.
Zhenda finished,Discount UGG boots, go to the medical examination room. the amount of finished length, the doctor said be a small child in the same age, and this time there should be 60 centimeters long. .
! However,Bailey UGG boots, the lowest level, but the.
out of the hospital,UGGs, I smiled and said to her husband,UGG boots, laugh, cry from the 7:00 : 30 only then opened his eyes, usually less than 12:00 can not afford to see him sleep so fragrant, nor the heart to wake him up, let alone so young, I really do not know that this is good or bad for him.
Zhenda finished,Discount UGG boots, go to the medical examination room. the amount of finished length, the doctor said be a small child in the same age, and this time there should be 60 centimeters long. .
! However,Bailey UGG boots, the lowest level, but the.
out of the hospital,UGGs, I smiled and said to her husband,UGG boots, laugh, cry from the 7:00 : 30 only then opened his eyes, usually less than 12:00 can not afford to see him sleep so fragrant, nor the heart to wake him up, let alone so young, I really do not know that this is good or bad for him.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
A deceptive fake money monk
Oh, this guy, ah, I see he is quite silly to think
cheated by this, nor is how I see some fool
his Heart, and understand that's also how the, br> So I met the monks asked me for money, I asked him Buddha, to see how he comprehend.
,Discount UGG boots, but I was, law is not fixed, no phase of to ask him, even if his back was a lot of Buddhism Buddhism , unless they had really really comprehend that absolutely can not fool me ....< br> Well, who told me so much news and the wisdom it.
is true even if the monk monk decades, smaller than I Yeah, also I learned a meal. Even now, a lot worse than me, but also not long before I can go beyond his ah!!!
Well, I said how stupid it that monks are monks and nuns studied five Sixty years on, I was surprised to be caught up a few months a few years, several decades to realize my awareness of a few days.
Haha, arrogant,
but is indeed very wise, but installed Bale
compare this man away mad and not solve the problem, his problem still exists, we should be the wisdom of compassion to saving him, not to give up and abandon him.
But most people are more stupid, ah,UGG boots clearance, and generally a Buddhist, just to satisfy their psychological desire to seek spiritual sustenance fills,
Therefore, most people always create a better environment from the comfort, do not want others to break the delusion of the Environment, it is more The more self-centered Buddhism, the more does not allow those who can not meet their psychological desires of people, so increasingly there are more reactions to the destruction of their habitat were Chenxin more paranoid large.
Therefore, the cultivation of the mind, understand why their own likes and dislikes these two emotions, the breaking of the.
to save this person may be wise compassion to rescue him, I should go deep within his heart, to know that he now circumstances and family and his past.
Unfortunately, most people ah, only, well-intentioned, the lack of wisdom,
really, stupid enough.
I'm mad ah, yes, because of more news and wisdom I originally are very few people,
lie to me?
even learn evil ways, such as Lotus will generally not be contaminated, just more honed my critical thinking skills and wisdom nothing more.
question everything, question the Buddha, questioning the teacher,bailey UGG boots, independent thinking, comprehending why, while cautioning against themselves, guard against self-righteousness.
how we will face the darkness, how the collapse of the dark? how to make the self. by, equality, fraternity, faith in poor root in the hearts of the earth? blind criticism, subversion, resistance, irony, satirical heat, blood for blood, to violent uprising, the revolution of the revolution, to rogue on rogue is able to dispel the darkness? can solve the problem ? And, blood for blood, to violence uprising, to the revolution of the revolution, to rogue rogue course of a very cruel for the dark, despicable rebound, but is also transmitted to the dark depths of our hearts the spirit of the virus? We even help with the dark forces of the same means to fight the darkness, whether it is still in the dark against dark, dark condone? to go against the rogue, the results themselves have become a rogue; the means to fight the darkness of darkness, the results themselves are turned into darkness, all of this, not that we often see the tragic scene?
do not sit on our side, grinning in our hearts but.
I am extremely arrogant:
there even in poverty, disease throughout the world. Many people with physical illness,UGG bailey button, many people have a soul the disease. science to the former provides an effective drug, but did not give the afflicted patients in a mental hospital to bring any good news.
these two diseases for a reason. compassion of the people must strive to eliminate this reason If they want to give effective treatment.
lawless evil person, and the generation of ignorance than those that physically tortured the people should be compassionate, because they have psychological and mental diseases. They should not be cursed, and contempt, people should be sympathetic to their shortcomings and mistakes. While the mother of all her children have the same heart of compassion, but it may be more sympathetic to her sick child. Similarly, people should be treated with infinite compassion of mentally ill people, because their disease destroyed their character.
pity all the pain tolerance of suffering beings, and loving all the joy and suffering according to sentient beings everywhere.
not because of any sound like a lion and trembling, a person should not be curses Younao; stick mesh as the breeze, a person should not be in this uncertain world, seduced by false happiness; as the mud does not dye the lotus flower, a person should not be swayed by the temptation of the world, but should always be the calm, sober, serene.
the same character with the first three, this Sheli has its direct enemies, the craving (raga), its indirect enemy is merciless and ignorant indifference.
equal Sheli to abandon greed and Chen Hui, equal justice as its main features. to attend the Equal Sheli into neither persistent in good times, do not hate stress.
evil and holy he who holds the same attitude, there is no heart, respectively.
love embraces all beings, compassion embrace the pain of the people, rejoice in the rich inclusiveness, and equality from the Sheque inclusive of good and evil, love and non-love, music and non music.
Oh, how I see myself thought I was smart, intelligent practitioner, it is rare Oh!!!
wisdom you did not first go away to go home, give me good news and more practice !!!
Why do this to yourself every day, said:
> psychological analysis, the reason they did not reach, because there are potential psychological pain, psychological self-defense, so when I saw other people's fraud, resulting in a dislike and rejection, but not really rise to others compassion.
these people, we should first do their therapy.
cheated by this, nor is how I see some fool
his Heart, and understand that's also how the, br> So I met the monks asked me for money, I asked him Buddha, to see how he comprehend.
,Discount UGG boots, but I was, law is not fixed, no phase of to ask him, even if his back was a lot of Buddhism Buddhism , unless they had really really comprehend that absolutely can not fool me ....< br> Well, who told me so much news and the wisdom it.
is true even if the monk monk decades, smaller than I Yeah, also I learned a meal. Even now, a lot worse than me, but also not long before I can go beyond his ah!!!
Well, I said how stupid it that monks are monks and nuns studied five Sixty years on, I was surprised to be caught up a few months a few years, several decades to realize my awareness of a few days.
Haha, arrogant,
but is indeed very wise, but installed Bale
compare this man away mad and not solve the problem, his problem still exists, we should be the wisdom of compassion to saving him, not to give up and abandon him.
But most people are more stupid, ah,UGG boots clearance, and generally a Buddhist, just to satisfy their psychological desire to seek spiritual sustenance fills,
Therefore, most people always create a better environment from the comfort, do not want others to break the delusion of the Environment, it is more The more self-centered Buddhism, the more does not allow those who can not meet their psychological desires of people, so increasingly there are more reactions to the destruction of their habitat were Chenxin more paranoid large.
Therefore, the cultivation of the mind, understand why their own likes and dislikes these two emotions, the breaking of the.
to save this person may be wise compassion to rescue him, I should go deep within his heart, to know that he now circumstances and family and his past.
Unfortunately, most people ah, only, well-intentioned, the lack of wisdom,
really, stupid enough.
I'm mad ah, yes, because of more news and wisdom I originally are very few people,
lie to me?
even learn evil ways, such as Lotus will generally not be contaminated, just more honed my critical thinking skills and wisdom nothing more.
question everything, question the Buddha, questioning the teacher,bailey UGG boots, independent thinking, comprehending why, while cautioning against themselves, guard against self-righteousness.
how we will face the darkness, how the collapse of the dark? how to make the self. by, equality, fraternity, faith in poor root in the hearts of the earth? blind criticism, subversion, resistance, irony, satirical heat, blood for blood, to violent uprising, the revolution of the revolution, to rogue on rogue is able to dispel the darkness? can solve the problem ? And, blood for blood, to violence uprising, to the revolution of the revolution, to rogue rogue course of a very cruel for the dark, despicable rebound, but is also transmitted to the dark depths of our hearts the spirit of the virus? We even help with the dark forces of the same means to fight the darkness, whether it is still in the dark against dark, dark condone? to go against the rogue, the results themselves have become a rogue; the means to fight the darkness of darkness, the results themselves are turned into darkness, all of this, not that we often see the tragic scene?
do not sit on our side, grinning in our hearts but.
I am extremely arrogant:
there even in poverty, disease throughout the world. Many people with physical illness,UGG bailey button, many people have a soul the disease. science to the former provides an effective drug, but did not give the afflicted patients in a mental hospital to bring any good news.
these two diseases for a reason. compassion of the people must strive to eliminate this reason If they want to give effective treatment.
lawless evil person, and the generation of ignorance than those that physically tortured the people should be compassionate, because they have psychological and mental diseases. They should not be cursed, and contempt, people should be sympathetic to their shortcomings and mistakes. While the mother of all her children have the same heart of compassion, but it may be more sympathetic to her sick child. Similarly, people should be treated with infinite compassion of mentally ill people, because their disease destroyed their character.
pity all the pain tolerance of suffering beings, and loving all the joy and suffering according to sentient beings everywhere.
not because of any sound like a lion and trembling, a person should not be curses Younao; stick mesh as the breeze, a person should not be in this uncertain world, seduced by false happiness; as the mud does not dye the lotus flower, a person should not be swayed by the temptation of the world, but should always be the calm, sober, serene.
the same character with the first three, this Sheli has its direct enemies, the craving (raga), its indirect enemy is merciless and ignorant indifference.
equal Sheli to abandon greed and Chen Hui, equal justice as its main features. to attend the Equal Sheli into neither persistent in good times, do not hate stress.
evil and holy he who holds the same attitude, there is no heart, respectively.
love embraces all beings, compassion embrace the pain of the people, rejoice in the rich inclusiveness, and equality from the Sheque inclusive of good and evil, love and non-love, music and non music.
Oh, how I see myself thought I was smart, intelligent practitioner, it is rare Oh!!!
wisdom you did not first go away to go home, give me good news and more practice !!!
Why do this to yourself every day, said:
> psychological analysis, the reason they did not reach, because there are potential psychological pain, psychological self-defense, so when I saw other people's fraud, resulting in a dislike and rejection, but not really rise to others compassion.
these people, we should first do their therapy.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
More than 20 downtown street vendor woman romantic massage refined _ _ Sina blog of Zhao Yun
More than 20 women massage downtown street vendor, The first commercial area downtown market and Jiefang Road, Sanya, and therefore the bridge every day, busy, crowded. Every evening, there is always a lot of foreign tourists and the public after this. unexpected is that in the near Sanya Bridge, West Bridge the ruins of a building site, over 20 local women covered with their mats and blankets, a norm in the downtown street openly like to start a massage business. The open-air massage field attracted a lot of men patronize their business very hot.
news came from Yuya Road Sanya City compound, across the bridge of Sanya, on one side in the bridge position, see the open-air massage field. reporter at the bridge to the massage field of view,Bailey UGG boots, faint lights inside,UGG boots, 20 more than in the Women sat on their blankets spread on their own, some of the guests who sit in massage, and some passengers are sitting or standing strokes. less than 1,000 square meters of open space, paved about 20 plastic awning cloth, and cover on a mat or blanket,cheap UGG boots, it became a up mostly of migrant workers.
Subsequently, the reporters at a distance of less than 10 meters massage field position to see, the woman will give guests a kneading massage arm, for a rub thighs, buttocks guests still sitting at the back. massage during Some men will directly take off your coat and the woman who forthrightly by the customer to press to go after massage, but also help the guests to wear warm clothes.
reporters found that there are a few male massage venue sent to reporters eyes -40 years old, several young women in their 20s are busy due to the guests sought after massage, while some of Older lay to rest. They basically wore short sleeves, shorts and high heels, long hair all dressed up.
A woman from Sichuan in a red (a pseudonym) is repeated She asked how much time you press, A Red, said:
Subsequently, the reporter called for by A red mats to lie down, took a chair and sat A red mat at one end, stretched out his hands to press the head massage. A Red smiled and asked reporters: This is the first time, right? have not seen you. news, really feeling all kinds of business tools and diverse society today, women can actually massage such things in the street can be completed on the mat, but also loss of these people can think out, think about women with more than 20 to more than 20 man, massage, and a variety of stalls there, what a beautiful scene, it must be a Avenue gather together to form the it! in social development to this day, no matter how the mob massage thing, people always find it difficult to accept that a woman's eyes how it all like in the the opposite sex only in a pair of hands in the street lighting,UGG bailey button, to help ease the pressure some men, this alternative means, not a normal development, but abnormal development under the guise of money, money madness of urging development. < br> massage girl, always reminiscent of the bad things that are affecting the normal development of the massage, so that the development of the massage on the street, how formal it will not make people think, just think of the desire of the flesh imaginations. in the social consciousness of today's cross-flow, and even massage can be collective, and there is impossible to do anything!
any one industry, are long-term needs of normal construction to develop formal, too number of non-formal sector, too many shoddy, too many real ones, so we believe this is true, but the real industry people do not trust the degenerate slowly, slowly become too Let's difficult to believe that so many of today's massage rooms, how many there really pure massage it, it is worth our careful consideration.
community presented to our very state, always gives us real exaggerated awareness of society of smoke and mirrors, a massage parlors there can also be enough for us to change the view on the industry, let alone abnormal social development of the massage business too! things are in the original faded color, the original pure things, are marked social panic, social so we do not know, it is difficult to compare this with their child, because too much social change, and we are highly variable.
the development of China's service industry norms, norms the development of the whole industry in China, do not involve relations at every turn, and sensual, like the support of people's minds is now hidden in the light of romantic chic, change the status of the industry to ban illicit sector, regulate the industry in the development of ideas, people's thinking is correct important means, the only way we believe society can have a real side, but also allow more authentic side to show to us!
college girls hymen repair You drink milk in bed, dare to drink human milk? most people agonistic for the top ten actress naked male college students actually are interested in I have a relationship, how can I do? 90 Why the A piece of embarrassing to see the temple thing? 17-year-old girl skating butt even be
news came from Yuya Road Sanya City compound, across the bridge of Sanya, on one side in the bridge position, see the open-air massage field. reporter at the bridge to the massage field of view,Bailey UGG boots, faint lights inside,UGG boots, 20 more than in the Women sat on their blankets spread on their own, some of the guests who sit in massage, and some passengers are sitting or standing strokes. less than 1,000 square meters of open space, paved about 20 plastic awning cloth, and cover on a mat or blanket,cheap UGG boots, it became a up mostly of migrant workers.
Subsequently, the reporters at a distance of less than 10 meters massage field position to see, the woman will give guests a kneading massage arm, for a rub thighs, buttocks guests still sitting at the back. massage during Some men will directly take off your coat and the woman who forthrightly by the customer to press to go after massage, but also help the guests to wear warm clothes.
reporters found that there are a few male massage venue sent to reporters eyes -40 years old, several young women in their 20s are busy due to the guests sought after massage, while some of Older lay to rest. They basically wore short sleeves, shorts and high heels, long hair all dressed up.
A woman from Sichuan in a red (a pseudonym) is repeated She asked how much time you press, A Red, said:
Subsequently, the reporter called for by A red mats to lie down, took a chair and sat A red mat at one end, stretched out his hands to press the head massage. A Red smiled and asked reporters: This is the first time, right? have not seen you. news, really feeling all kinds of business tools and diverse society today, women can actually massage such things in the street can be completed on the mat, but also loss of these people can think out, think about women with more than 20 to more than 20 man, massage, and a variety of stalls there, what a beautiful scene, it must be a Avenue gather together to form the it! in social development to this day, no matter how the mob massage thing, people always find it difficult to accept that a woman's eyes how it all like in the the opposite sex only in a pair of hands in the street lighting,UGG bailey button, to help ease the pressure some men, this alternative means, not a normal development, but abnormal development under the guise of money, money madness of urging development. < br> massage girl, always reminiscent of the bad things that are affecting the normal development of the massage, so that the development of the massage on the street, how formal it will not make people think, just think of the desire of the flesh imaginations. in the social consciousness of today's cross-flow, and even massage can be collective, and there is impossible to do anything!
any one industry, are long-term needs of normal construction to develop formal, too number of non-formal sector, too many shoddy, too many real ones, so we believe this is true, but the real industry people do not trust the degenerate slowly, slowly become too Let's difficult to believe that so many of today's massage rooms, how many there really pure massage it, it is worth our careful consideration.
community presented to our very state, always gives us real exaggerated awareness of society of smoke and mirrors, a massage parlors there can also be enough for us to change the view on the industry, let alone abnormal social development of the massage business too! things are in the original faded color, the original pure things, are marked social panic, social so we do not know, it is difficult to compare this with their child, because too much social change, and we are highly variable.
the development of China's service industry norms, norms the development of the whole industry in China, do not involve relations at every turn, and sensual, like the support of people's minds is now hidden in the light of romantic chic, change the status of the industry to ban illicit sector, regulate the industry in the development of ideas, people's thinking is correct important means, the only way we believe society can have a real side, but also allow more authentic side to show to us!
college girls hymen repair You drink milk in bed, dare to drink human milk? most people agonistic for the top ten actress naked male college students actually are interested in I have a relationship, how can I do? 90 Why the A piece of embarrassing to see the temple thing? 17-year-old girl skating butt even be
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Generation of investors, the stock market rise in 2007
2007-2008: the rise of a generation
stock market investors this article first appeared in people shocked, surprised the world. It attributed the legend of the Chinese stock market started in 2005, the share reform, her interpretation of a policy effect, but if you go beyond the stock market back in the past, the Chinese investment market in 2007 has five major surprises: 1 , the stock market the world's most expensive; 2, the higher the price the more stressed; 3, found many deposits of gold, the gold price rise not fall; 4, Chen Yifei's ; 5, or by the highest proportion of tea, and nephrite, and a variety of rare mahogany furniture.
reform of split share structure reform, the skyrocketing price of tea can interpret it? Obviously not. So the market in 2007 to *** Wonders of the reasons behind certain policy effects beyond the simple,bailey UGG boots, deeply explore the internal logic of its economy. five surprise in common investment goods, the past two years as the formation of the Chinese market, the beginning of investment goods will have to face a new economic phenomenon: the rise of investor groups. from the investor group and investment goods market point of view, the market in 2007 is unprecedented spectacle. because the traditional Chinese investment has always been rejected not only the exclusion of investment in cultural traditions, political system exclusive investment, even without also rejected the orthodox into the investment business, so in Chinese history did not leave an investor's tombstone!
times are different, the rise of the investor, who is the biggest investment of contemporary people? To answer this question, the most The simplest way is to see who the most profitable? Who's the largest market share? who market the most influential? So the answer is self-evident: the country! state of contemporary China's biggest investors. Therefore, to understand the Chinese stock market's past and future,Discount UGG boots, must be research as a market, the country's largest investor behavior and its relationship with other market between investors. From the perspective of behavioral finance is to behavior in the anatomy of the market groups, interpretation of the behavioral characteristics of the different behavior groups.
First, the state: a world-class investors, the first birth of a planned economy
the monopoly of investment, the most direct and most simple way is to close all of the investment goods market, so we closed the famous Shanghai Stock Exchange mm Far East was ranked first, third in the world. Since then, investment has become the executive power contingency, and then faded into a vassal state of political rights. So far, countries in the elimination of other investors, but also eliminate the person as an investment One of the country.
from the the legal position. but in other areas of investment, especially investment in the virtual economy, law and policy did not give investors a clear legal status, there are ministries that three years ago, the official issued a document strictly prohibited affiliated enterprises to participate in equity investments. In the illegal market would be tantamount to non-savings into the market, so any money without a bank it! In addition, the amendment before the We all legal regulations and control as one by one and found that farmers were not restricted to trading only stocks, in addition to unrestricted registration as a street: social idlers, that is, the saying goes, conclusion: China's stock market is to make the original design of the system of doomed unable to avoid. So in the state-owned economic entities began to appear in the ; of securities companies, fund companies and pension funds and other investment business license issued by state-owned enterprises. Obviously, this is contrary to the split share structure reform, the revolutionary significance: the stock market, securities are commodities, investors are God. countries have made the legal status of investors, securities market has been one of the largest legitimate from investors.
the affiliated enterprises equity incentive, all of a special status based on country: I am a investor! national foreign exchange reserves also contributed to the rapid growth in the investment management of foreign exchange, then set up the China Investment Corporation, a two-billion dollars initial investment to become the world's largest sovereign wealth funds. At this point, a world-class national investors was born, looking back two years, the stock market boom, the state is the biggest beneficiary of the investment, the stock market value of the state-owned assets, both in proportion or in the aggregate, are the largest. state-owned assets in the stock market carrying a premium of more than 13 trillion, while the end of 2006, the SASAC only less than the carrying amount of the net assets of 5.4 trillion. China shares the U.S. investment firm Blackstone and Morgan Stanley, its world-class investor's market position is very clear, although the printing of talking about their investment decisions, but in the investment community, has always been not to short-term gains, then the success or failure, or even the success of Heroes .2007, a world-class national investors is born! concern national investors and other market between investors is the key to interpret the stock market in 2008. other market investors, what does? one body, the second is retail.
II institutions: a non-rational growth of investment groups
2007 years is the rise of institutional investors in China for one year and the current public offering funds of up to 3.4 trillion total market capitalization, representing the market value of stock in circulation nearly 40% of the total, according to The total market value of shares in circulation to fight the freezing of funds + market funds calculate the total amount of raised funds in the proportion of nearly 30%. There are other institutions and private equity QFII, QFII funds the amount of two thousand million, which is well documented, Other private equity funds and . Therefore, the total amount of institutional funds should be 4 trillion over the present, accounting for total stock market value Banbiheshan mainland.
institutions in the market, hold high the found that If we trace such a major driving force behind the prosperity, none other than the non-institutional investors. This raises a question: is a rational investment agency people? What is the reason? If it is a reasonable valuation of the futures market, who is the China's stock market pushed up to nearly 70 times earnings? more than 6 times the book value? If institutional investors, institutional investors and how to define a rational standard it?
people on the different. Nobel Laureate in Economics, Amaya. Sen (Amartya Sen) of the theorem of rational choice economics (RCT, Rational Choice Theory) made a very detailed study, based on my Amaya. Professor Sen's understanding , the rational economic analysis has broad and narrow sense, the concept of narrow rational cost-benefit analysis is based on maximizing the interests of the broad concept of the rational method also includes the investment decision-making, and as a decision making method of discipline (Discipline), defined as the use of reason (for the operation or be used to predict and so on) there are different meanings. institutional investors have risk management techniques, have their own ideas persist, with operations specifications compliance, a pre-set goals , and will therefore maximize the return on the investment in the pursuit of behavior driven, pushing China's stock market continuously raise the stop loss point of risk management, protection and amplification of its profit margin. Therefore, the rational organization methods Trader higher the degree of its investment-driven level of non-rational higher market valuation. Therefore, I interpretation of institutional investors is: a non-rational rational investment groups.
people often ; chase often come from the agency selling the Most do not want to , do not read off the computer, and only interactions, trends in the economy without changing the fundamentals, the market does not occur as long as the mental collapse of its main direction is to push stock prices higher. because the chase does not sell into retail, institutional sell into the rise not to kill. In short: higher level of investment philosophy, the more mature the ability to push the stock market, the stronger, so the rational organization of investment and market valuation on each other, in the Chinese stock market's growing non-rational expectations context, enhanced the stock market's irrational exuberance .2008 go from here? look at the behavior of individual investors preferences, and their game with the national investors.
three retail: a pack of wolves and sheep's China's stock market before 2005, the surface is dominated by retail investors, because the legal and policy constraints forced the agency into the good and evil? stock among retail investors in the sun, the national investment in the gray areas, institutional investors are sneaked into the underground society of public opinion is biased in favor of retail investors. Over the past two years, public opinion began to shift criticism of retail investors ; non-rational This is the seventy million investors say the origin. However, China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation recently sealed over twenty million deal almost did not happen over fifty million valid account. subdivided look, there are infiltrated underground organization, which is like ;, including those dedicated the second calculation, the effective retail more than five hundred thousand people, we often say this is the old shareholders. Therefore, China's old shareholders have seventy million of that, as it should be corrected.
statistics that in 2005, new accounts create a low number, only a hundred million, increased to 3.18 million in 2006, two years together and then divided by two, adding more than two million, which also includes the rise of new public fund and QFII accounts .2007 sudden opening of a climax in April and May reached its peak, this is definitely a wave of retail clustering market. to the latest statistics of the account calculated the total number of 130 million in one year to five thousand million new accounts in order In addition to two terms, new investors into the market in 2007 should be two thousand five hundred million, almost double the number of old shareholders. I misjudged the end of 2006 the stock market was flat in 2007, 2008, stock index or six thousand, mainly due to One is not this an estimated retail market in groups to the so vigorous. so later in the to six thousand, six thousand main stock index has still not think the goal came so fast! Stock Market Analysis of changes in investment structure can not be separated for the analysis of 200 groups of new investors into the market in groups of sudden changed the trajectory of China's stock market in the past. They are already accounted for in the number of absolute advantage, its investment style and the old shareholders are also very different.
Behavioral Finance put forward a concept called , including the ), one is noise traders (Noisy Trader), the former is the body, which is retail. two investors have the behavioral characteristics of the sheep, but retail investors are noise flock characteristics, institutions are Silence of the Lambs. almost straight upward, only two intermittent, once in adjustment are down 20% high end of the adjustment time is about two months. I wrote in the column observed, the time was the beginning of June 3450 recognized stock index down at the end, one is Shanghai in early December confirmed refers to the five thousand stabilized (after correction for the middle of the oil included in the index, will occur more than 230 points of variable). These two callbacks exposed a silent group, their institutions , a firm to do more.
with there must be passed in the process of amplification of partial derivatives, like a stone's throw into the water as part of a ring wave amplification, but the direction will become increasingly distorted. Therefore, the sheep running in and out in the market outside the stock market index has also come to fluctuations shock. However, in China, every Japan continues to steadily rise. If it is not very careful observation, you almost difficult to distinguish between two investment groups in the stock market exchange. This is my column's symphony, in short, in the , including myself. Although we see a trend, but did not expect silence in a pack of wolves, driven by trends revealed himself so quickly, the stock rose so high!
2008, the market transform into especially in the Chinese stock market's determine the trend of convergence is always
eyes of the beholder, the wise see wisdom, in my view, the virtual economy, market and general commodity market is the biggest difference between the Trend unpredictable. so there a need to grasp in the uncertain market conditions of certainty; asymmetric information in the search for profitable liquidity; forecast trend in the unpredictable risk of stage degrees. So, although I predict a the relative risk at different stages, to grasp a specific point in time the market opportunities, not being able to interpret the stock market code in the , and to avoid this type of narcissistic regarded as elegant; was to meet the challenges and changes based on real market constantly revised. which in turn can be divided into two schools, one is rational judgments, from the fundamentals of economic operation determine trends in the stock market, identified as the national economy, the stock market , the two ideas is different, can be neglected.
to see the stock market from the economic fundamentals, there are four good in 2008: 1, accelerate economic development in the inevitable escalation of the middle class demand for investment goods; 2, the slowdown in U.S. economy directly promote the inflow of foreign investment in multi-level; 3, the inevitable tightening of monetary policy to accelerate yuan appreciation; 4, loose fiscal policy directly contributed to improved fundamentals. The level of theory, we remain in the future discussion, now from the behavior of investment preferences to analyze the trend in the stock market in 2008.
stock among investors --- the greatest country, rational investors --- institutions, as well as noisy or silent investors flock of sheep and wolves --- group. they choose what the internal consistency? This is economics made himself a new proposition, because the economic definition of rational choice is one of internal consistency. I call this interpretation of the internal consistency for the group convergence behavior, trying to find different investors the same or similar behavior preferences, feels like a sudden out of a thick forest and see the endless blue sky. These three investment groups, which the seller will do in 2008? The answer is simple: never!
most likely to be the seller is a national investor, but unfortunately she is still a cage tradable, negotiable shares less than 27% this year, in 2008 only 32%, circulation of the Times to become a reality in 2010. And from the actual control of the management of state-owned listed companies motives of view, the beginning of this year incentive, market management, profit and corporate governance, and so turned over, the pressure in the stock market bubble , their rational choice is necessarily a Rational Analysis for the self-interest is to maximize the internal consistency or national investors, at least in 2008, rational choice is not assets outside to do the bull market of state-owned banks from the China Banking Regulatory Commission the first half is the main yes. then according to the theorem of rational choice economics,UGG boots, institutional rational (Discipline) operating level is higher, the market's irrational (Irrational) will overestimate the higher the institutional funds so dominant on the market, the stronger the stock market as a whole increase the driving force of the stronger. The paradox is a seemingly unreasonable export a > look at retail, to enter the market in 2008, can not be both ratio is about 20%, of which about half is the insulation. China's urban population in 2008 is expected to reach six hundred million or more, 10%, the direct intervention of the shareholders should have the sixty million or so, so I estimate the number of new accounts in 2008 will decline, at least not recurrence of the outbreak of 2007 in groups into the market. If these estimates can serve as a reference, the total number of new accounts in 2008 will be reduced to four million, the Shanghai and Shenzhen account divided by two separate terms, the number of new investors will about ten million.
incremental reduction of the number of new investors but does not necessarily mean incremental reduction of shareholders funds, which gave me propose a new problem: individual investors in 2008 to estimate the amount of money? There are several reasons I am more inclined to conclude that the significant increase in the amount of retail funds: 1, the inevitable effect of inflation, negative interest rates squeeze bank savings, from the bank's regularly into current, which means that savings is about to accelerate, not to sell from the impulse into sound,UGGs, from gambling to investing; 3, the wealth effect of the investment market will be like a catapult into the water ripples that circle around to enlarge, forming a steady flow of information, so that more capital into the stock market, as long as blindly without policy intervention, there is no market for psychological breakdown, from the wealth of information to transfer funds into the market chain will not be reversed in the recent trend.
In summary, the investment group in 2008 and 2007 still Like the stock market has pushed up the internal consistency. This convergence behavior of groups of macro-economic trends in selection and promotion of the common stock of irrational exuberance, so the bull market will continue, turning point must in time, trend reversed only in national investment preference reversal in human behavior when it is likely to occur, and this reversal will be tradable stock market in China as a precondition to the Government An economic study of social choice, provided us with a judged that the key market trends, investment in research opened the door to people's behavior choices, the conclusion may seem absurd, but in 2006-2007 the stock market has been partially tested. Economists have no reason to refuse to open the windows of rational decision making, behavior selection into the door, but should not be self-appreciation of so-called En Liesi modern works are not of interest in the stock market the housing market, did not on the behavior of inflation and asset bubbles of interpretation and decision making. Many people still do not miss the era of inflation, asset bubbles like to squeezed life, and sing away from the economy, government, cursed deviant society, did not realize, all of which have become the lifestyle of their choice, calling the survival password interpret these modern financial experts.
2007 年December 29 in Las Vegas
stock market investors this article first appeared in people shocked, surprised the world. It attributed the legend of the Chinese stock market started in 2005, the share reform, her interpretation of a policy effect, but if you go beyond the stock market back in the past, the Chinese investment market in 2007 has five major surprises: 1 , the stock market the world's most expensive; 2, the higher the price the more stressed; 3, found many deposits of gold, the gold price rise not fall; 4, Chen Yifei's ; 5, or by the highest proportion of tea, and nephrite, and a variety of rare mahogany furniture.
reform of split share structure reform, the skyrocketing price of tea can interpret it? Obviously not. So the market in 2007 to *** Wonders of the reasons behind certain policy effects beyond the simple,bailey UGG boots, deeply explore the internal logic of its economy. five surprise in common investment goods, the past two years as the formation of the Chinese market, the beginning of investment goods will have to face a new economic phenomenon: the rise of investor groups. from the investor group and investment goods market point of view, the market in 2007 is unprecedented spectacle. because the traditional Chinese investment has always been rejected not only the exclusion of investment in cultural traditions, political system exclusive investment, even without also rejected the orthodox into the investment business, so in Chinese history did not leave an investor's tombstone!
times are different, the rise of the investor, who is the biggest investment of contemporary people? To answer this question, the most The simplest way is to see who the most profitable? Who's the largest market share? who market the most influential? So the answer is self-evident: the country! state of contemporary China's biggest investors. Therefore, to understand the Chinese stock market's past and future,Discount UGG boots, must be research as a market, the country's largest investor behavior and its relationship with other market between investors. From the perspective of behavioral finance is to behavior in the anatomy of the market groups, interpretation of the behavioral characteristics of the different behavior groups.
First, the state: a world-class investors, the first birth of a planned economy
the monopoly of investment, the most direct and most simple way is to close all of the investment goods market, so we closed the famous Shanghai Stock Exchange mm Far East was ranked first, third in the world. Since then, investment has become the executive power contingency, and then faded into a vassal state of political rights. So far, countries in the elimination of other investors, but also eliminate the person as an investment One of the country.
from the the legal position. but in other areas of investment, especially investment in the virtual economy, law and policy did not give investors a clear legal status, there are ministries that three years ago, the official issued a document strictly prohibited affiliated enterprises to participate in equity investments. In the illegal market would be tantamount to non-savings into the market, so any money without a bank it! In addition, the amendment before the We all legal regulations and control as one by one and found that farmers were not restricted to trading only stocks, in addition to unrestricted registration as a street: social idlers, that is, the saying goes, conclusion: China's stock market is to make the original design of the system of doomed unable to avoid. So in the state-owned economic entities began to appear in the ; of securities companies, fund companies and pension funds and other investment business license issued by state-owned enterprises. Obviously, this is contrary to the split share structure reform, the revolutionary significance: the stock market, securities are commodities, investors are God. countries have made the legal status of investors, securities market has been one of the largest legitimate from investors.
the affiliated enterprises equity incentive, all of a special status based on country: I am a investor! national foreign exchange reserves also contributed to the rapid growth in the investment management of foreign exchange, then set up the China Investment Corporation, a two-billion dollars initial investment to become the world's largest sovereign wealth funds. At this point, a world-class national investors was born, looking back two years, the stock market boom, the state is the biggest beneficiary of the investment, the stock market value of the state-owned assets, both in proportion or in the aggregate, are the largest. state-owned assets in the stock market carrying a premium of more than 13 trillion, while the end of 2006, the SASAC only less than the carrying amount of the net assets of 5.4 trillion. China shares the U.S. investment firm Blackstone and Morgan Stanley, its world-class investor's market position is very clear, although the printing of talking about their investment decisions, but in the investment community, has always been not to short-term gains, then the success or failure, or even the success of Heroes .2007, a world-class national investors is born! concern national investors and other market between investors is the key to interpret the stock market in 2008. other market investors, what does? one body, the second is retail.
II institutions: a non-rational growth of investment groups
2007 years is the rise of institutional investors in China for one year and the current public offering funds of up to 3.4 trillion total market capitalization, representing the market value of stock in circulation nearly 40% of the total, according to The total market value of shares in circulation to fight the freezing of funds + market funds calculate the total amount of raised funds in the proportion of nearly 30%. There are other institutions and private equity QFII, QFII funds the amount of two thousand million, which is well documented, Other private equity funds and . Therefore, the total amount of institutional funds should be 4 trillion over the present, accounting for total stock market value Banbiheshan mainland.
institutions in the market, hold high the found that If we trace such a major driving force behind the prosperity, none other than the non-institutional investors. This raises a question: is a rational investment agency people? What is the reason? If it is a reasonable valuation of the futures market, who is the China's stock market pushed up to nearly 70 times earnings? more than 6 times the book value? If institutional investors, institutional investors and how to define a rational standard it?
people on the different. Nobel Laureate in Economics, Amaya. Sen (Amartya Sen) of the theorem of rational choice economics (RCT, Rational Choice Theory) made a very detailed study, based on my Amaya. Professor Sen's understanding , the rational economic analysis has broad and narrow sense, the concept of narrow rational cost-benefit analysis is based on maximizing the interests of the broad concept of the rational method also includes the investment decision-making, and as a decision making method of discipline (Discipline), defined as the use of reason (for the operation or be used to predict and so on) there are different meanings. institutional investors have risk management techniques, have their own ideas persist, with operations specifications compliance, a pre-set goals , and will therefore maximize the return on the investment in the pursuit of behavior driven, pushing China's stock market continuously raise the stop loss point of risk management, protection and amplification of its profit margin. Therefore, the rational organization methods Trader higher the degree of its investment-driven level of non-rational higher market valuation. Therefore, I interpretation of institutional investors is: a non-rational rational investment groups.
people often ; chase often come from the agency selling the Most do not want to , do not read off the computer, and only interactions, trends in the economy without changing the fundamentals, the market does not occur as long as the mental collapse of its main direction is to push stock prices higher. because the chase does not sell into retail, institutional sell into the rise not to kill. In short: higher level of investment philosophy, the more mature the ability to push the stock market, the stronger, so the rational organization of investment and market valuation on each other, in the Chinese stock market's growing non-rational expectations context, enhanced the stock market's irrational exuberance .2008 go from here? look at the behavior of individual investors preferences, and their game with the national investors.
three retail: a pack of wolves and sheep's China's stock market before 2005, the surface is dominated by retail investors, because the legal and policy constraints forced the agency into the good and evil? stock among retail investors in the sun, the national investment in the gray areas, institutional investors are sneaked into the underground society of public opinion is biased in favor of retail investors. Over the past two years, public opinion began to shift criticism of retail investors ; non-rational This is the seventy million investors say the origin. However, China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation recently sealed over twenty million deal almost did not happen over fifty million valid account. subdivided look, there are infiltrated underground organization, which is like ;, including those dedicated the second calculation, the effective retail more than five hundred thousand people, we often say this is the old shareholders. Therefore, China's old shareholders have seventy million of that, as it should be corrected.
statistics that in 2005, new accounts create a low number, only a hundred million, increased to 3.18 million in 2006, two years together and then divided by two, adding more than two million, which also includes the rise of new public fund and QFII accounts .2007 sudden opening of a climax in April and May reached its peak, this is definitely a wave of retail clustering market. to the latest statistics of the account calculated the total number of 130 million in one year to five thousand million new accounts in order In addition to two terms, new investors into the market in 2007 should be two thousand five hundred million, almost double the number of old shareholders. I misjudged the end of 2006 the stock market was flat in 2007, 2008, stock index or six thousand, mainly due to One is not this an estimated retail market in groups to the so vigorous. so later in the to six thousand, six thousand main stock index has still not think the goal came so fast! Stock Market Analysis of changes in investment structure can not be separated for the analysis of 200 groups of new investors into the market in groups of sudden changed the trajectory of China's stock market in the past. They are already accounted for in the number of absolute advantage, its investment style and the old shareholders are also very different.
Behavioral Finance put forward a concept called , including the ), one is noise traders (Noisy Trader), the former is the body, which is retail. two investors have the behavioral characteristics of the sheep, but retail investors are noise flock characteristics, institutions are Silence of the Lambs. almost straight upward, only two intermittent, once in adjustment are down 20% high end of the adjustment time is about two months. I wrote in the column observed, the time was the beginning of June 3450 recognized stock index down at the end, one is Shanghai in early December confirmed refers to the five thousand stabilized (after correction for the middle of the oil included in the index, will occur more than 230 points of variable). These two callbacks exposed a silent group, their institutions , a firm to do more.
with there must be passed in the process of amplification of partial derivatives, like a stone's throw into the water as part of a ring wave amplification, but the direction will become increasingly distorted. Therefore, the sheep running in and out in the market outside the stock market index has also come to fluctuations shock. However, in China, every Japan continues to steadily rise. If it is not very careful observation, you almost difficult to distinguish between two investment groups in the stock market exchange. This is my column's symphony, in short, in the , including myself. Although we see a trend, but did not expect silence in a pack of wolves, driven by trends revealed himself so quickly, the stock rose so high!
2008, the market transform into especially in the Chinese stock market's determine the trend of convergence is always
eyes of the beholder, the wise see wisdom, in my view, the virtual economy, market and general commodity market is the biggest difference between the Trend unpredictable. so there a need to grasp in the uncertain market conditions of certainty; asymmetric information in the search for profitable liquidity; forecast trend in the unpredictable risk of stage degrees. So, although I predict a the relative risk at different stages, to grasp a specific point in time the market opportunities, not being able to interpret the stock market code in the , and to avoid this type of narcissistic regarded as elegant; was to meet the challenges and changes based on real market constantly revised. which in turn can be divided into two schools, one is rational judgments, from the fundamentals of economic operation determine trends in the stock market, identified as the national economy, the stock market , the two ideas is different, can be neglected.
to see the stock market from the economic fundamentals, there are four good in 2008: 1, accelerate economic development in the inevitable escalation of the middle class demand for investment goods; 2, the slowdown in U.S. economy directly promote the inflow of foreign investment in multi-level; 3, the inevitable tightening of monetary policy to accelerate yuan appreciation; 4, loose fiscal policy directly contributed to improved fundamentals. The level of theory, we remain in the future discussion, now from the behavior of investment preferences to analyze the trend in the stock market in 2008.
stock among investors --- the greatest country, rational investors --- institutions, as well as noisy or silent investors flock of sheep and wolves --- group. they choose what the internal consistency? This is economics made himself a new proposition, because the economic definition of rational choice is one of internal consistency. I call this interpretation of the internal consistency for the group convergence behavior, trying to find different investors the same or similar behavior preferences, feels like a sudden out of a thick forest and see the endless blue sky. These three investment groups, which the seller will do in 2008? The answer is simple: never!
most likely to be the seller is a national investor, but unfortunately she is still a cage tradable, negotiable shares less than 27% this year, in 2008 only 32%, circulation of the Times to become a reality in 2010. And from the actual control of the management of state-owned listed companies motives of view, the beginning of this year incentive, market management, profit and corporate governance, and so turned over, the pressure in the stock market bubble , their rational choice is necessarily a Rational Analysis for the self-interest is to maximize the internal consistency or national investors, at least in 2008, rational choice is not assets outside to do the bull market of state-owned banks from the China Banking Regulatory Commission the first half is the main yes. then according to the theorem of rational choice economics,UGG boots, institutional rational (Discipline) operating level is higher, the market's irrational (Irrational) will overestimate the higher the institutional funds so dominant on the market, the stronger the stock market as a whole increase the driving force of the stronger. The paradox is a seemingly unreasonable export a > look at retail, to enter the market in 2008, can not be both ratio is about 20%, of which about half is the insulation. China's urban population in 2008 is expected to reach six hundred million or more, 10%, the direct intervention of the shareholders should have the sixty million or so, so I estimate the number of new accounts in 2008 will decline, at least not recurrence of the outbreak of 2007 in groups into the market. If these estimates can serve as a reference, the total number of new accounts in 2008 will be reduced to four million, the Shanghai and Shenzhen account divided by two separate terms, the number of new investors will about ten million.
incremental reduction of the number of new investors but does not necessarily mean incremental reduction of shareholders funds, which gave me propose a new problem: individual investors in 2008 to estimate the amount of money? There are several reasons I am more inclined to conclude that the significant increase in the amount of retail funds: 1, the inevitable effect of inflation, negative interest rates squeeze bank savings, from the bank's regularly into current, which means that savings is about to accelerate, not to sell from the impulse into sound,UGGs, from gambling to investing; 3, the wealth effect of the investment market will be like a catapult into the water ripples that circle around to enlarge, forming a steady flow of information, so that more capital into the stock market, as long as blindly without policy intervention, there is no market for psychological breakdown, from the wealth of information to transfer funds into the market chain will not be reversed in the recent trend.
In summary, the investment group in 2008 and 2007 still Like the stock market has pushed up the internal consistency. This convergence behavior of groups of macro-economic trends in selection and promotion of the common stock of irrational exuberance, so the bull market will continue, turning point must in time, trend reversed only in national investment preference reversal in human behavior when it is likely to occur, and this reversal will be tradable stock market in China as a precondition to the Government An economic study of social choice, provided us with a judged that the key market trends, investment in research opened the door to people's behavior choices, the conclusion may seem absurd, but in 2006-2007 the stock market has been partially tested. Economists have no reason to refuse to open the windows of rational decision making, behavior selection into the door, but should not be self-appreciation of so-called En Liesi modern works are not of interest in the stock market the housing market, did not on the behavior of inflation and asset bubbles of interpretation and decision making. Many people still do not miss the era of inflation, asset bubbles like to squeezed life, and sing away from the economy, government, cursed deviant society, did not realize, all of which have become the lifestyle of their choice, calling the survival password interpret these modern financial experts.
2007 年December 29 in Las Vegas
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